RiskCurrent Now
How the system reads right now
A public view of the framework behind RiskCurrent — the Global Stress Index scale, the nine weighted groups, and every one of the 97 monitored metrics. The current Global Stress Index value lives in the app.
Global Stress Index · v1.5
One 0–100 score, four stages
The Global Stress Index rolls the nine weighted groups into a single number on a 0–100 scale. Here is the scale and its stage bands.
- Low
- 0–33
- Medium
- 34–59
- High
- 60–79
- Critical
- 80–100
The website shows the scale, not a live score. The current Global Stress Index is computed in the app so a single authoritative reading exists — the website never recomputes it.
How staging works →Weighted groups
Nine groups, weighted into the score
Each group contributes to the Global Stress Index by a fixed weight. Percentages below are those weights.
Global Macro & Supply Chain
11 scored · 34 metrics
US Sovereign Debt & Liquidity
11 scored · 18 metrics
International Sovereign
6 scored · 8 metrics
Energy Security
7 scored · 11 metrics
Metals & Relative Value
3 scored · 3 metrics
Equities & Volatility
2 scored · 3 metrics
Credit & Banking
8 scored · 14 metrics
Food & Agriculture
4 scored · 4 metrics
Geopolitical & Trade Policy
2 scored · 2 metrics
Bars are relative to the largest group weight.
Primary drivers
What's pushing the score
The app surfaces the metrics contributing most to current stress — its Primary Drivers — computed from live readings on your device. Because those rankings are computed in the app, they live there rather than being recomputed on the web.
You can explore every metric that can become a driver below, including its group, source, and live value.
Jump to the explorer ↓Metric explorer
All 97 monitored metrics
54 scored and 43 informational. Search and filter the full set; load any metric's current provider reading on demand.
97 of 97 metrics
Global Industrial Production Growth
ScoredYear-over-year change in CPB’s seasonally adjusted global industrial-production volume index.
Global Macro & Supply ChainCPBmonthly
US Consumer Price Inflation
ScoredYear-over-year change in US consumer prices.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US Unemployment Rate
ScoredShare of the US labor force without work.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US 10Y–2Y Treasury Spread
ScoredDifference between ten- and two-year Treasury yields.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDdaily
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
ScoredStandardized measure of transport and manufacturing pressure.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
World Trade Volume Growth
ScoredYear-over-year change in CPB’s seasonally adjusted global merchandise-trade volume index.
Global Macro & Supply ChainCPBmonthly
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
ScoredBenchmark long-term US government borrowing rate.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
US 30-Year Treasury Yield
ScoredLong-duration US sovereign yield.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
U.S. Treasury Volatility Proxy
ScoredRiskCurrent proxy: pooled 20-common-session root-mean-square of daily yield changes across 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasuries. It is not the licensed ICE MOVE Index.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
InformationalOvernight rate backed by Treasury repo transactions.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
SOFR–IORB Funding Spread
ScoredSOFR minus interest on reserve balances, expressed in basis points.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
Treasury Financing Fails to Deliver
ScoredFour-week moving average of Primary Dealer Treasury financing fails to deliver, excluding TIPS plus TIPS, in billions.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityNYFEDweekly
Federal Reserve Asset Expansion (13W)
ScoredPercentage change in Federal Reserve total assets over 13 weekly observations.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDweekly
Fed Discount Window Borrowing
ScoredPrimary credit borrowed directly from the Federal Reserve.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDweekly
US Bank Reserve Balances
ScoredWeekly-average reserve balances maintained at Federal Reserve banks.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDweekly
Fed Overnight Reverse Repo
InformationalCash invested at the Fed overnight by eligible counterparties.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
Tri-Party Repo–IORB Spread
ScoredTri-party general-collateral repo rate minus IORB, expressed in basis points.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
Italy–Germany 10Y Spread
ScoredItalian ten-year sovereign yield minus the aligned German ten-year yield.
International SovereignFREDmonthly
Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield
ScoredMonthly benchmark Japanese government bond yield.
International SovereignFREDmonthly
United Kingdom 10-Year Gilt Yield
ScoredMonthly benchmark UK government borrowing cost.
International SovereignFREDmonthly
Broad U.S. Dollar Index
ScoredOfficial nominal broad trade-weighted foreign-exchange value of the U.S. dollar; it is not the ICE DXY index.
International SovereignFREDdaily
Emerging Market FX Volatility
ScoredAnnualized 20-observation volatility of log changes in the Fed’s emerging-market dollar index.
International SovereignFREDdaily
Brent Crude Oil
ScoredDaily Europe Brent spot price in U.S. dollars per barrel; it is not a futures contract.
Energy SecurityFREDdaily
Brent Crude Oil Downside Signal
InformationalBinary signal derived from FRED DCOILBRENTEU. Returns 1 when Brent has fallen at least 30 % from its rolling 52-week high AND the current Brent spot price is at or below the 10th percentile of all Brent price observations in the trailing 5 calendar years; otherwise 0. Returns no reading before the 5-calendar-year window is complete (historical first valid date: 1992-05-20). Daily cadence, typically one business-day lag. Informational only — excluded from the Global Stress Index.
Energy SecurityFREDdaily
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price
ScoredDaily West Texas Intermediate spot price at Cushing, Oklahoma; it is not a futures contract.
Energy SecurityFREDdaily
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
ScoredEmergency crude held by the United States.
Energy SecurityEIAweekly
US Commercial Crude Inventories
ScoredCommercial crude stored excluding the SPR.
Energy SecurityEIAweekly
European Gas Storage
InformationalAggregate EU underground natural-gas storage fill.
Energy SecurityGIEdaily
Germany Gas Storage
InformationalGerman underground gas storage fill.
Energy SecurityGIEdaily
Italy Gas Storage
InformationalItalian underground gas storage fill.
Energy SecurityGIEdaily
European Natural Gas Price
ScoredWorld Bank European natural-gas price series, linked to Dutch TTF since April 2015.
Energy SecurityWORLD_BANKmonthly
Japan LNG Import Price
ScoredWorld Bank monthly LNG import price for Japan, cost-insurance-freight basis.
Energy SecurityWORLD_BANKmonthly
Global Uranium Price
ScoredWorld uranium price distributed through FRED.
Energy SecurityFREDmonthly
Gold–Silver Ratio
ScoredWorld Bank monthly gold price divided by its same-month silver price.
Metals & Relative ValueWORLD_BANKmonthly
Global Copper Price
ScoredWorld copper price per metric ton distributed through FRED.
Metals & Relative ValueFREDmonthly
Copper–Gold Ratio
ScoredWorld Bank monthly copper price in US dollars per pound divided by its same-month gold price in US dollars per troy ounce.
Metals & Relative ValueWORLD_BANKmonthly
S&P 500 Drawdown
ScoredDecline from the rolling 52-week high in the official FRED S&P 500 series.
Equities & VolatilityFREDdaily
VIX 3-Month Term Spread
ScoredVIX divided by the CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index, minus one, expressed as a percentage.
Equities & VolatilityFREDdaily
SOFR–T-Bill Funding Spread
ScoredSOFR minus the 3-month Treasury bill secondary-market rate, expressed in basis points.
Credit & BankingFREDdaily
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
ScoredStandardized composite of US market stress.
Credit & BankingFREDweekly
US Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate
ScoredShare of consumer loans past due at commercial banks.
Credit & BankingFREDquarterly
FAO Global Food Price Index
ScoredInternational price index for a basket of food commodities.
Food & AgricultureFAOmonthly
Global Wheat Price
ScoredWorld wheat price per metric ton distributed through FRED.
Food & AgricultureFREDmonthly
Global Corn Price
ScoredWorld maize price per metric ton distributed through FRED.
Food & AgricultureFREDmonthly
Global Fertilizer Price Index
ScoredComposite global fertilizer cost.
Food & AgricultureWORLD_BANKmonthly
Trade Policy Uncertainty Index
ScoredCaldara et al. news-based trade-policy uncertainty index published by Federal Reserve Board researchers.
Geopolitical & Trade PolicyFED_BOARDmonthly
Geopolitical Risk Index
ScoredNews-based index of geopolitical threats and acts.
Geopolitical & Trade PolicyFREDmonthly
US Core Consumer Price Inflation
InformationalYear-over-year change in consumer prices excluding food and energy.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US Core PCE Inflation
InformationalYear-over-year change in the PCE price index excluding food and energy.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US 5-Year Breakeven Inflation
ScoredMarket-implied average inflation over the next five years.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDdaily
US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation
InformationalMarket-implied average inflation over the next ten years.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDdaily
US Nonfarm Payroll Momentum
InformationalThree-month average of monthly changes in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US Initial Claims Acceleration
ScoredAcceleration in the four-week mean of initial claims versus the four-week mean ending thirteen weeks earlier.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDweekly
US Real Gross Domestic Product
InformationalSeasonally adjusted annualized level of real U.S. gross domestic product.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDquarterly
US Real GDP Growth
ScoredAnnualized percent change in real GDP from the preceding quarter.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDquarterly
US Industrial Production Growth
ScoredYear-over-year change in the Federal Reserve industrial-production index.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US Capacity Utilization
InformationalShare of industrial productive capacity currently in use.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US PCE Price Inflation
InformationalYear-over-year change in the headline PCE price index.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US 5Y5Y Forward Inflation Expectation
InformationalMarket-implied five-year inflation beginning five years ahead.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDdaily
US Continued Unemployment Claims
InformationalFour-week arithmetic mean of continued unemployment claims.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDweekly
US Labor Productivity Growth
InformationalYear-over-year change in nonfarm-business output per hour.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDquarterly
US Manufacturing Output Growth
InformationalYear-over-year change in manufacturing industrial production.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US Retail Sales Growth
InformationalYear-over-year change in advance retail and food-service sales.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US Real Disposable Income Growth
InformationalYear-over-year change in real disposable personal income.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US Personal Saving Rate
InformationalPersonal saving as a share of disposable personal income.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US Housing Starts Growth
InformationalYear-over-year change in seasonally adjusted annualized housing starts.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
US Net Exports
InformationalSeasonally adjusted annualized exports minus imports of goods and services.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDquarterly
US Treasury General Account
InformationalWeekly-average U.S. Treasury deposits held at Federal Reserve Banks.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDweekly
US 10-Year Real Treasury Yield
ScoredMarket yield on ten-year inflation-indexed Treasury securities.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
US 10-Year Forward Term Premium
ScoredInstantaneous forward Treasury term premium ten years ahead.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
US 1-Month Treasury Yield
InformationalOne-month constant-maturity Treasury yield.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDdaily
U.S. Dollar to Euro Exchange Rate
InformationalU.S. dollars required to purchase one euro.
International SovereignFREDdaily
Japanese Yen to U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate
InformationalJapanese yen required to purchase one U.S. dollar.
International SovereignFREDdaily
Euro Area Real GDP Growth
ScoredYear-over-year change in chained-volume real GDP for the euro area.
International SovereignFREDquarterly
US C&I Loan Growth
ScoredYear-over-year change in commercial and industrial loans at U.S. commercial banks.
Credit & BankingFREDmonthly
US C&I Lending Standards Tightening
ScoredNet percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for large and middle-market C&I loans.
Credit & BankingFREDquarterly
US Bank Deposit Growth
ScoredPercentage change in commercial-bank deposits over thirteen weekly observations.
Credit & BankingFREDweekly
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index
InformationalWeekly Chicago Fed composite of U.S. financial conditions; positive values are tighter than average.
Credit & BankingFREDweekly
US Total Bank Loan Growth
InformationalYear-over-year change in loans and leases at U.S. commercial banks.
Credit & BankingFREDweekly
US Consumer Loan Growth
InformationalYear-over-year change in consumer loans at U.S. commercial banks.
Credit & BankingFREDmonthly
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Growth
InformationalYear-over-year growth in seasonally adjusted real personal consumption expenditures.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
Building Permits Growth
InformationalYear-over-year growth in privately owned housing units authorized by building permits.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
Average Weekly Hours Growth
InformationalYear-over-year growth in the three-month mean of average weekly hours for total private employees.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
Average Hourly Earnings Growth
InformationalYear-over-year growth in average hourly earnings for total private employees.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
Business Inventory Growth
InformationalYear-over-year growth in seasonally adjusted total business inventories.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
M2 Money Supply Growth
InformationalYear-over-year growth in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDmonthly
Consumer Loan Charge-Off Rate
ScoredSeasonally adjusted charge-off rate on consumer loans at all commercial banks.
Credit & BankingFREDquarterly
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
ScoredReal-time Sahm Rule indicator based on the rise in the three-month unemployment-rate average from its prior twelve-month minimum.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
InformationalChicago Fed composite of national economic activity relative to historical trend.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
Job Openings Growth
InformationalYear-over-year growth in seasonally adjusted total nonfarm job openings.
Global Macro & Supply ChainFREDmonthly
Commercial Real Estate Loan Delinquency Rate
ScoredDelinquency rate on commercial real-estate loans excluding farmland, booked in domestic offices, at all commercial banks.
Credit & BankingFREDquarterly
Credit Card Loan Delinquency Rate
InformationalSeasonally adjusted delinquency rate on credit-card loans at all commercial banks.
Credit & BankingFREDquarterly
Household Equity Allocation
InformationalHouseholds and nonprofit organizations’ directly and indirectly held corporate equities as a share of total financial assets.
Equities & VolatilityFREDquarterly
Household Debt Service Ratio
InformationalRequired household mortgage and consumer debt payments as a share of disposable personal income.
Credit & BankingFREDquarterly
Nonfinancial Corporate Debt to GDP
InformationalNonfinancial corporate debt securities plus loans relative to nominal U.S. GDP.
Credit & BankingFREDquarterly
Real Policy Rate
InformationalMonthly average effective federal funds rate minus trailing twelve-month core PCE inflation.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDmonthly
RiskCurrent Net Liquidity Estimate Momentum
InformationalThirteen-week change in a constructed estimate combining Federal Reserve assets, Treasury deposits, and overnight reverse repo balances.
US Sovereign Debt & LiquidityFREDweekly
RiskCurrent is an informational monitoring tool and does not provide investment, legal, emergency, or professional financial advice.