How the Global Stress Index works

The Global Stress Index (GSI) is a single number, from 0 to 100, describing how much stress is present across the world system right now. Higher means more stress. It is a description of current conditions, not a forecast and not a probability of any specific event.

The GSI runs from 0 to 100 and is divided into four stages:

Stage anchor points on the scale are 12 (Low), 42 (Medium), 70 (High), and 95 (Critical). A GSI of 34 sits at the bottom of the Medium band.

Every metric belongs to one of nine groups. Each group carries a fixed weight in the GSI, so the score reflects a deliberate balance across domains rather than treating all areas equally.

RiskCurrent monitors 97 metrics in total: 54 scored and 43 informational.

Scored metrics have defined stage thresholds and contribute to their group score and the GSI. Informational metrics are shown for context — a reference rate, a level, or a companion signal — but do not carry a stage or move the score. Keeping the two separate means a number never implies a judgement the methodology doesn't support.

Each scored metric has thresholds that map its current value to a stage — Low, Medium, High, or Critical — accounting for whether higher or lower values are riskier. Group scores combine the metrics in a group; the GSI combines the groups by their weights.

This computation happens in the RiskCurrent app so that one authoritative reading exists on your device. The website does not recompute the GSI, group scores, or driver rankings — it explains the framework and, in the explorer, shows the same underlying provider readings.

Metrics are drawn from established public and official data providers, retrieved through the RiskCurrent backend. Providers currently include:

CPB · EIA · FAO · FED_BOARD · FRED · GIE · NYFED · WORLD_BANK

Provider credentials remain server-side and are not shipped in the app. Each metric records its provider and source series so a reading can be traced back to its origin.

• Metrics update on different cadences — daily, weekly, monthly, or quarterly — so not every input moves at the same time.
• A reading is only as timely as its provider; delayed, stale, and last-known states are labeled rather than hidden.
• The GSI describes current conditions. It does not predict events, timing, or market moves.
• Thresholds and weights reflect a deliberate methodology, not an objective truth; they are versioned and can change.

RiskCurrent is an informational monitoring tool and does not provide investment, legal, emergency, or professional financial advice.

RiskCurrent is methodology v1.5. Material changes to how the GSI is built will be reflected here with a new version.